EntrepreneurialRevolution.city July 2020..If you care about two out of 3 lives mattering who are Asian, nearly 60 years of miracles mapping around worldwide decision-makers considering Japan from 1962 are worth replaying -that's when my father Norman Macrae aged 39 was privileged to write his first signed survey in The Economist -the first 2 quarters of dad's 80+ years of life had been spent **writing unsigned leaders in The Economist (eg as only journalist at Messina's birth of EU) after serving as teenager in world war 2 navigating air places uk bomber command region modern day bangladesh/myanmar - ** following his father who worked for british diplomatic services around embassies in midst of conflict - eg mostow of stalin 1934, last adriatic port jews used to escape hitler 1938 )-during this quarter dad concluded that world wars root cause was the history of empires like britain and japan which had trapped most peoples in poverty, to end war he wanted to mediated loving each other's places, ;peoples and especially children
Norman Macrae, having survived teenage navigation of RAF planes bomber command world war 2 over modern-day myanmar/bangladesh, joined The Economist in 1949, and retired as the deputy editor of what he called "the world's favourite viewspaper" in 1988. During that time, he wrote extensively on the future of society and the impact of technology. Norman foresaw species sustainability as being determined by post-colonial and virtual mapmaking- 5G 4G 3G 2G 1G 0G if 60s tech could race to moon and Moore alumni promised 100 times more machine intel every decade TO 2025, let's end poverty mediating/educating a world of loving each others' children- so that wherever the next millennials girl is born she enjoys great chance to thrive.
Soon Norman was celebrating his wartime enemy's rising engineers and win-win sme supply chains across far east and very concerned that tod down constitutions english speaking nations led by political bureaucrats wasn't fit for entrepreneurial revolution-he co-opted a young romani prodi to translate Economist 1976 ER survey into multilingual formats
Amongst some of his more outlandish claims: that governments would not only reverse the nationalisation process and denationalise formerly private industries, but would also sell industries and services that had been state operated for so long that it seemed impossible that they could be run by private companies. A pioneer before the pioneers, Macrae imagined privatised and competing telecommunications and utility companies improving service levels and reducing prices.
When others saw arms build-ups as heralding World War III, Macrae predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall by the end of the 1980's.
The Norman Macrae Archive serves as an on-line library, hosting a growing collection of Macrae articles, newspaper columns and highlights from his books. We hope that you find the articles thought provoking and zoom, twitter or question us - norman's son chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk
best wishes
1972 ecconomist survey of 1972-2012- WILL AMERICANS AND EUR-CITIZENS EVER BE FREED ENTREPRENEURIALLY FROM PAPER CURRENCIES THE ONLY ZERO-SUM TRADE MONOPLY IN A WORLD WHERE ACTIONABLE KNOWHOW MULTIPLIES VALUE UNLIKECONSUMING UP THING
.....
youth hall of fame - japan global friendship associations 12 smart intrapreneurs- sony creative lounge
future of HIStory 1945 -to update 2020s version see also Princeton history project connections with osun and von neumanns future of humansai.com
look first at the G8 biggest jigsaw pieces of nearly 200 nations who sought to unite san francisco 1945-until the virus came 2020 was due to be the happy 75th birthday of nations 17sdgs as well as the frontline heroics of medecins sans frontieres and partners in health- coalitions of soft power had never been so urgent to valuetrue. Nature does not play with walls, and other games of externalization at borders -only mistaken male professionals do as they systemically confuse the power of big getting bigger with advancing the human lot for all our children including wherever the next girl is born
In 1945, there were just over 5% of people who lived in usa and Canada- they had twice saved the old world tri-continent of asia Africa and Europe from world wars. Most remarkably usa that in 1939 ranked 17th in terms of international navies on a par with Portugal had become the heart of the wining allied forces. You had the two northern islands at either end of the coastal belts of west Europe and far eat asia who had multiplied so many colonial poverty traps across the Asian 60+% majority of human race , Africa and middle east’s 10%. In trying to compete with uk, France had arguably been most brutal in colonizing med sea Africa, slave trading needed to develop America north wars up from louisana, as well as napoleons war of nations which had sucked in austria hungary , Germany and Russia among others.by start of 20th c Germany without colonies to feed its engineers need for carbon and steel had become bellicose across all its borders. This left less than 2% people in the iced up and largest land mass of all ussr ready to be the victims of stalin as the second most fearsome tyrant the first hal of 20th century grew exponentially. All the while half of humanity – women – were left out of how the word capitalized land and counted productivity even though a deeper look would show that the led with educators like Montessori and health networkers like Florence nightingale, marie curie and indeed the Franciscan role of the clares as community health missionaries- the conscience of mother mary if you will. 9se girlsworldbank.com) There were of course further geographic oddities- only 10% of people lived in the southern hemisphere; less than 1% of peoples lived on what became a quarter of all nations the SIDS- small island developing nations with minimal land resources but huge ocean estates very much dependent on climate, and nature including good human nature of tourism. And you had the archipelagos especially Indonesia and Philippines with large populations- one the epicentre of the world trade in medicinal spices – know how the dutch prized nutmeg so much that they were prepared to swap with the uk control of one indonesian holland with their us territory new Amsterdam rebranded new york
Dad Norman of The Economist and Von Neumann met in New York Princeton through the year of 1951. They viewed world wars as a terrible error root caused by lack of human space (as well as primitive leadership) in the n-s central euro corridor down to the suez canal; von neumann asked whether economists could contribute to a 2 generation survey to 2025 - by this time could brain tools and 8 billion human brains map secure futures of our species out of every GPS. The stry continues at bard.solar-
5 years overtime requested by those whose cooperations will determining UN SDG reality
update 5/19/23
Ahead of Japan G7 we asked bard whether Japan's 2019 support lof Osaka Track data science has helped ai for good and for UN sdgs. Given the huge opportunity of 6 month expo out of osaka in 2025 and the elad tiems on staging most exciting and sustainability goal exhibits and partnershisps, we have started asking BARD for advioce - please tell us if this topic inreersts you and/or iof you advance answers to what AI Osaka 2025 can optimally celebrate
can you help me understand connections between "osaka track" call for cooperative data science announced by Japan G20 in 2019 and the deep data integral to massive impacts of HAI or AIforgood
Sure. The "Osaka Track" call for cooperative data science is a global initiative that was announced by Japan at the G20 summit in 2019. The goal of the initiative is to promote the responsible and ethical use of data science for the benefit of society. The initiative calls for the development of new data science tools and methods that can be used to address global challenges such as climate change, poverty, and inequality.
The deep data that is integral to the massive impacts of HAI or AIforgood is the data that is collected from a variety of sources, including sensors, devices, and social media. This data can be used to train machine learning models that can be used to solve a variety of problems. For example, deep data can be used to develop models that can predict the spread of diseases, identify fraudulent transactions, or personalize education.
The "Osaka Track" call for cooperative data science and the deep data that is integral to HAI or AIforgood are both important components of the future of data science. These initiatives will help to ensure that data science is used for the benefit of society, rather than for harm.
Here are some specific examples of how deep data is being used to address global challenges:
Deep data is being used to develop models that can predict the spread of diseases. For example, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is using deep data to develop models that can predict the spread of malaria in Africa. These models are being used to target interventions more effectively and to save lives.
Deep data is being used to identify fraudulent transactions. For example, banks are using deep data to identify fraudulent credit card transactions. This helps to protect consumers from fraud and to prevent financial losses.
Deep data is being used to personalize education. For example, Khan Academy is using deep data to personalize the learning experience for each student. This helps students to learn more effectively and to reach their full potential.
These are just a few examples of how deep data is being used to address global challenges. As data science continues to evolve, we can expect to see even more innovative and impactful applications of deep data in the future.
Sure. Here are some potential AI-related exhibits that could be featured at the 2025 Osaka Expo:
Exhibits on the use of AI for sustainable development. This could include exhibits on how AI is being used to address climate change, improve food security, and provide access to clean water.
Exhibits on the use of AI for healthcare. This could include exhibits on how AI is being used to diagnose diseases, develop new treatments, and provide personalized care.
Exhibits on the use of AI for education. This could include exhibits on how AI is being used to personalize learning, provide feedback, and create engaging educational experiences.
Exhibits on the use of AI for transportation. This could include exhibits on how AI is being used to develop self-driving cars, improve traffic flow, and make transportation more efficient.
Exhibits on the use of AI for security. This could include exhibits on how AI is being used to detect and prevent crime, protect critical infrastructure, and keep people safe.
These are just a few examples of the many potential AI-related exhibits that could be featured at the 2025 Osaka Expo. The expo is a great opportunity to showcase the latest advances in AI and to explore how AI can be used to solve some of the world's most pressing challenges.
From the perspective of millennials who want to help the UN transform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), AI can play a significant role in helping to achieve these goals. For example, AI can be used to:
Improve data collection and analysis. This can help to identify the root causes of problems and to develop effective solutions.
Target interventions more effectively. This can help to ensure that resources are used in the most efficient way possible.
Personalize interventions. This can help to ensure that interventions are tailored to the specific needs of individuals and communities.
Scale up interventions. This can help to reach a wider range of people and to make a bigger impact.
AI is a powerful tool that can be used to address some of the world's most pressing challenges. The 2025 Osaka Expo is a great opportunity to showcase the latest advances in AI and to explore how AI can be used to help achieve the SDGs.
Yes, there are a number of leading Asia-US and Asia-Euro professional AI networks that are working on potentially exciting AI solutions in time for Osaka 2025. Some of these networks include:
The Asia-Pacific Artificial Intelligence Association (AAIA)
The European Association for Artificial Intelligence (EurAI)
The Partnership on AI (PAI)
The World Economic Forum's Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution
These networks are working on a variety of AI projects that have the potential to make a significant impact on society. Some of these projects include:
Developing AI-powered solutions to climate change
Using AI to improve healthcare
Using AI to personalize education
Developing AI-powered transportation systems
Using AI to improve security
The Osaka Expo can connect with these networks to learn more about the latest AI research and to explore how AI can be used to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The expo can also connect with these networks to identify potential partners for exhibits and events.
In addition to these networks, the Osaka Expo can also connect with a number of other organizations that are working on AI for good. Some of these organizations include:
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative
The Rockefeller Foundation
The United Nations
These organizations are working on a variety of AI projects that have the potential to improve the lives of people around the world. The Osaka Expo can connect with these organizations to learn more about their work and to explore how AI can be used to achieve the SDGs.
By connecting with these networks and organizations, the Osaka Expo can ensure that it is showcasing the latest advances in AI and that it is exploring how AI can be used to solve some of the world's most pressing challenges.
View other drafts
Yes, I believe that Japan's investments in the UN University and NAIXUS are helping to make the sorts of connections I have just suggested. The UN University is a global network of research and training centers that is working to address some of the world's most pressing challenges. NAIXUS is a network of AI research institutes that is working to promote the responsible and ethical use of AI. Both of these networks are working to connect with other organizations that are working on AI for good.
In addition to these networks, Japan is also working with Slovenia to develop the IRCAI Center of Excellence for Artificial Intelligence. The IRCAI Center is a joint initiative between the University of Ljubljana and the University of Tokyo. The center is working to develop AI solutions to global challenges such as climate change and poverty.
By investing in these networks and initiatives, Japan is helping to ensure that AI is used for good and that it is used to solve some of the world's most pressing challenges.
Please click here to start helping would unite celebration of former PM Abe's legacy
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rest of this post was filed as Jpan kept hope going with tokyo olympics so bravely staged summer 2021
update japanthanks.com - can japans society5.0 and gracious olympics beyond covid spitit also promote education valuing social business case studies
from 1970 saraya became famous in japan- it innovated palm oil cleaners for kitchen use- these are biodegradable unlike petroleum based cleansers
but around 2002 the company was inundated with reports that its sourcing of palm oil from borneo was killing elephants whose palm tree habitat was now being changed as the worlds epicentre of palm oil production; saraya designed a new supply chain including purchase of its own palm tree farms made elephant friendly and so returning its high reputation across japanese society
in 2009, saraya's busneess in uganda started handwashing campaigns to improve the nations sanitation reducing infant mortality by half in under a decade (along with parallel efforts brac uganda)
saraya wanted to make its product massively affordable; to do this it started social business modeling- it recognised that urganda's sugar cane industry could do much better for uganda if it recycled sugar cane waste into ethanol sanitisers; by going into this social business saraya scaled handwash products; as well as reduction of infant deaths, ebola in its neighbor the congo has not come to uganda and so far covid in uganda is less than other neighboring countries- saraya is not claiming that uganda will lead africa in beating covid- bur it is proud that community handwashing sanitation social businesses contribute to minimising diseases, local community businesses empowering women, childrens education, climate solutions shared from community to community
=======================previously
60 years ago my father norman macrae in the economist celebrated the rise of his wartime foe- dad was a teen in bomber command over modernday myanmae- by1960 advances on the slide ruler, minature devices and in measuring things were coming from japans microelectronic engineers, bullet trains which could mean either american coast could twin cities at maximum 4 mile railride, advances in mechanical diggers, as well as containerisation vital to just in time sme supply chains, these were solutions that could reverse how mainly british empire had designed trade and infrastructure to extract from the whole of asia- they were as integral to celebrating hopes of the 1960s as telecom satellites and moon races and from 1964 live worldwide sports out of tokyo olympics - livesmatter the way kobe.mba or naosaka.com fans would linkin the world over
none of the g8 with the exception of japan has advanced the sdgoals as worldwide solutions youth needed to celebrate since signing up to them in 2015-so please tell us events we can zoom into with japans common sense 1 nov 2019 to feb 2021
example from the japan society ny - 2 minutes walk from the united nations
5G, the next-generation mobile network that promises to move data at greater speeds and connect huge volumes of devices, is already being deployed in urban areas of Japan and the U.S. While giving consumers access to more information faster than ever before, 5G’s biggest impact will be on industry and business, transforming operations. What are the benefits and challenges of 5G technology, and how will it change the way we work and communicate, worldwide? In this program, speakers offer their views on 5G advantages and disadvantages, the potential impact on society, and prospects of U.S.-Japan collaboration. Followed by a Q&A.
Speakers: Elsa B. Kania, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Technology and National Security Program, Center for a New American Security Yuka Koshino, Research Fellow for Japanese Security and Defence Policy, International Institute for Strategic Studies Muriel Médard, Cecil H. Green Professor, Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Kazuo Noguchi, Senior Manager, Cyber Security Team, Research & Development Division, Hitachi America, Ltd.
Admission: This is a free event. You must register for the webinar to receive the login details.
why do we think the most dangerous norther winter is looming? well here are 3 lessons from trump oct 2020 which transpired out of the town i live n bethesda md -and here our issues our outofbeltway friends love to zoom with anyone wishing to share live saving knowhow
the story of the human race so far- 2 out of three people are asian-norther empires mainly britain trapped most continental asians in poverty ysing first comers advantages of machine age that emerged from glasgow u 1760s watt and smith
japans first 45 years of 20th c also did terrible harm to neighboring asians but from 1945 it shared every solution it found including borlaugs end starvation od a billion people with better local rice productivity, immunization sxience, better engineering from deming
japan stimulated the race to multiply 100 fold more tech analytics every decade gravitated by intel and alumni of silicon chip valley- just when massive local data is beamed up to the clouds in ways that sdg coalitions could share life critical solutions the planet over- other forces are being spun ruining climate, ignoring livesmatter failing to priortise risks like pandemics so clearly understood by gates, google and bush in 2005
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i hope abe's successor works with him behind the scenes- through the 2010s i always found abe the leader to read first on any global crisis
the world as well as japan so much needed worldwide celebrations of the new Reiwa era to blossom: imagine if the olympics had relaunched a livesmatter contract with all youth aka kobe.mba; coalitions to transparently form around osaka track and society 5.0 - a bridge with world economics forum leadeship of industrial revoltion 4 through 5 regional hubs- sa francisco, tokyo, being, delhi and geneva -all could have streamed rays of light into glasgow cop26
two thirds of the world people are asian- in the last 75 years every asian development has gained from good relations with japanese as the first in the world to become massive practical networkes of
demings engineering knowledge
borlaug's solutions for local food security
various barefoot medic movements led by epidemiologists
normanmacrae.net - my father norman macrae order of the rising sun. signed library in the economist was limited to one survey a year and then only from his 17th year at the journal- it began with consider japan 1962 and continued to review how to reverse across asia's two thirds of humanity how to reverse the old world colonial mess led by the world's worst ever corporation the east india company, evil capitalism out of london that insisted the far east accept opium as a currency- from 1964 prince charles was europe's first leader to celebrate relations with japan both at royal family levels and in inviting sony to inward invest
if the west had helped japan rebuild trust across those people it hurt up to 1945, adam smiths dream that the best of humans and machines could go west of scotland through usa and asia as an opposite world trade model to the east india company could have restarted at the same tine as the world leapt forward with 100 times moore tech each decade after the moon race decade to these 2020s
those who have spent time reading smith will know that as soon as he saw james watt first engines in the world he spent the rest of his life mediating the united states of english speakers; in his time scotland, ireland, and english royalty if they did not want to go the way of french royalty should all want to be states of a union led out of philadelphia- there was only one condition- the unions constitution should not only repeal slavery but recompense every owner of a business model -eg plantations- which depended on slavery or low cost labor- imagine smithian economics linking in scots irish new england boston new amsterdam/york philadelphia- continuing down us east coastal belt across georgia, to southern belt, alabama and french purchase louisana up the heartland to the great lakes across to west coast usa to hawaii and then to japan and through to asians two thirds of humans at the mid east landbridge through to africa as well as west asia bridge at turkey to south est and central europe- at some stage the northern roof of the old world ie russia could have become much more like canada because of a united asia as well as a united america- united around all lives matter- interestingly the conscious natural movements of the east have far less problems with skin color; and unlike golden rule religions are grounded in community/natural observation
from my sample of 1 being among 7.5 billion. asians have inspired me to celebrate all lives matter far more than any western movement i have been able to search as a diaspora scottish child growing up in the london of the 1950s
of course i would love to hear what cultures help you translate all lives matte everywhere you connect chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk -scots as a majority diaspora nation are eternally optimistic some would say naive- why not celebrate the best of all peoples skins languages genders homeland duversities not the least common denominator
thank you abe and i expect i had much more to learn than my any english report of mine can convey
thank you abe, from csis economist goodman - Assessing Abe’s Economic Statecraft
Read Online SIMON SAYS, AUGUST 2020 By Matthew P. Goodman
Just days after setting the record for longest consecutive term as Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe announced on August 28 that he was resigning on grounds of poor health. Beyond its durability, Abe’s term may be remembered mainly for its disappointments: his failure to pull the Japanese economy out of its decades-long torpor, to achieve his dream of amending Japan’s constitution, to resolve tensions with neighbors in Northeast Asia. But in one area Abe deserves better marks from historians: his economic statecraft in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
Abe came back into office in late 2012 determined to avoid the mistakes of his first, aborted term as prime minister in 2006-2007. In that earlier stint, Abe had shown virtually no interest in economics, putting his own constitutional-reform ambitions over the bread-and-butter concerns of most Japanese citizens. Abe 2.0 would not make the same mistake, announcing a three-point economic revitalization plan dubbed “Abenomics” by Japanese commentators.
Abenomics was well conceived but unevenly implemented. It consisted of “three arrows” aimed at prodding Japanese growth and productivity: aggressive monetary easing, accommodative fiscal policy, and structural reform. Abe did well on the first arrow, appointing a new governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, who made clear he would keep the monetary taps open until deflation was defeated. The fiscal policy record was more mixed, as repeated stimulus packages were undermined by two poorly handled consumption tax hikes. Most disappointing was the third arrow, as many of Abe’s promising structural reform initiatives, from “womenomics” to corporate governance reform, got bogged down by entrenched interests. part 2...continued
To be fair, Abe’s domestic economic program faced massive headwinds caused by Japan’s daunting “3D” challenges: deflation, debt, and—most intractable of all—demographics. With the country’s aging population set to drop from 128 million at its peak in 2010 to 87 million by 2060, it would take a miracle of enhanced productivity for Japan to generate more than mediocre growth.
But even with a weak hand at home, Abe understood that Japan’s economic weight as the world’s third-largest economy and a commercial powerhouse in the Asia-Pacific region gave him a trump card in foreign policy. And over his eight years in office, Abe played the economic statecraft card well. He used it to advance two enduring and interrelated goals of Japanese foreign policy: keeping the United States engaged in the Asia-Pacific region and managing the risks of a rising China.
One of the first things Abe did upon returning to office was to lean into the Obama administration’s “rebalancing” strategy toward Asia. In early 2013, he traveled to Washington and declared in a seminal speech (at CSIS) that “Japan is back.” He made clear his interest in Japan’s joining the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations then underway. Despite the stiff resistance he expected from Japanese farmers and other vested interests at home, Abe saw TPP membership as a multifaceted strategic ploy to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance, keep the United States embedded in the region, deepen ties with Japan’s Southeast Asian partners, and—not least—send a message to Beijing about Tokyo’s throw weight in regional rulemaking and norm-setting.
The election of Donald Trump halfway into his term forced Abe to sharply shift tactics while attempting to preserve the basic goals of his strategy. He quickly tried to ingratiate himself with Trump (famously flying to New York just weeks after the November 2016 election bearing a gift of a golden golf driver) in an effort to deflect the bilateral trade pressure that Abe knew was coming. While not entirely successful in these efforts, and paying a heavy price for what domestic critics saw as slavish behavior, Abe managed to avoid the worst of Trump’s tariffs on allies—most significant, threatened duties against the crown jewels of Japanese industry, automobiles.
Trump’s decision to withdraw from TPP on his third day in office was a major inflection point for Abe. Where other Japanese prime ministers would likely have resigned themselves to collapse of the regional trade initiative without its principal sponsor at the table, Abe made one of his boldest moves: he took up the chairman’s gavel and persuaded the other 10 TPP members to carry on with the negotiations. Historians are likely to point to Abe’s stewardship of those talks to a successful conclusion—salvaging most of TPP in an eventual Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)—as one of the singular achievements of his term.
Again, part of Abe’s strategic calculation about CPTPP was that it would plant a stake in the ground in the intensifying competition between Japan and China for regional leadership. As I have written elsewhere, while geographic proximity and commercial interdependence necessitate that Tokyo engage constructively with its large neighbor to the west, no Japanese leader can accept a Sinocentric order in the Asia-Pacific based on Beijing’s preferred rules and norms. Abe thus focused much of his economic statecraft on trying to offer alternatives to partners in the region. continued part 4
In addition to CPTPP, other noteworthy efforts in this regard included his campaign to promote “quality infrastructure.” Launched in 2015 as a thinly veiled response to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Abe’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure initially offered regional partners $110 billion (a number suspiciously close to the initial $100 billion capitalization of Beijing’s Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank) of Japanese investment in railways and ports with high standards of transparency and social, environmental, and fiscal sustainability. Abe then used his 2019 chairmanship of the Group of 20 (G20) to get his fellow economic leaders—including President Xi Jinping of China—to endorse a set of six “Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment.”
Data governance was another area in which Abe tried to make a statement about Japan’s preferred rules and norms. Often described as the “new oil,” data flow throughout the modern economy, yet there are few internationally agreed rules to govern the collection, storage, transfer, or privacy of data. Europe and China are staking out their own preferences in this area, but neither approach rests comfortably with Japan. Again, Abe used his role as host of the G20 in 2019 to win agreement to his concept of “data free flow with trust,” with the aim of starting a global conversation on this topic—along Japan’s preferred lines.
Toward the end of his term, Abe worked more quietly to sharpen Japan’s domestic tools of "economic security." He won passage of legislation to tighten the country’s foreign investment screening mechanism, authorized stronger enforcement of export controls, and set up a new economics office in his National Security Secretariat. Most recently, Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been considering proposals to strengthen intelligence agencies’ tools against commercial espionage.
Balance—between offensive and defensive tools, between soliciting Washington’s favor and protecting Japan’s commercial interests, between engaging with and hedging against China—has been the hallmark of Shinzo Abe’s economic statecraft. His successor would do well to carry on this important dimension of the outgoing prime minister’s legacy.
Matthew P. Goodman is senior vice president for economics and holds the Simon Chair in Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.
in 60 years
thank you abe, from csis economist goodman - Assessing Abe’s Economic Statecraft
ReplyDeleteRead Online
SIMON SAYS, AUGUST 2020
By Matthew P. Goodman
Just days after setting the record for longest consecutive term as Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe announced on August 28 that he was resigning on grounds of poor health. Beyond its durability, Abe’s term may be remembered mainly for its disappointments: his failure to pull the Japanese economy out of its decades-long torpor, to achieve his dream of amending Japan’s constitution, to resolve tensions with neighbors in Northeast Asia. But in one area Abe deserves better marks from historians: his economic statecraft in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
Abe came back into office in late 2012 determined to avoid the mistakes of his first, aborted term as prime minister in 2006-2007. In that earlier stint, Abe had shown virtually no interest in economics, putting his own constitutional-reform ambitions over the bread-and-butter concerns of most Japanese citizens. Abe 2.0 would not make the same mistake, announcing a three-point economic revitalization plan dubbed “Abenomics” by Japanese commentators.
Abenomics was well conceived but unevenly implemented. It consisted of “three arrows” aimed at prodding Japanese growth and productivity: aggressive monetary easing, accommodative fiscal policy, and structural reform. Abe did well on the first arrow, appointing a new governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, who made clear he would keep the monetary taps open until deflation was defeated. The fiscal policy record was more mixed, as repeated stimulus packages were undermined by two poorly handled consumption tax hikes. Most disappointing was the third arrow, as many of Abe’s promising structural reform initiatives, from “womenomics” to corporate governance reform, got bogged down by entrenched interests. part 2...continued
To be fair, Abe’s domestic economic program faced massive headwinds caused by Japan’s daunting “3D” challenges: deflation, debt, and—most intractable of all—demographics. With the country’s aging population set to drop from 128 million at its peak in 2010 to 87 million by 2060, it would take a miracle of enhanced productivity for Japan to generate more than mediocre growth.
ReplyDeleteBut even with a weak hand at home, Abe understood that Japan’s economic weight as the world’s third-largest economy and a commercial powerhouse in the Asia-Pacific region gave him a trump card in foreign policy. And over his eight years in office, Abe played the economic statecraft card well. He used it to advance two enduring and interrelated goals of Japanese foreign policy: keeping the United States engaged in the Asia-Pacific region and managing the risks of a rising China.
One of the first things Abe did upon returning to office was to lean into the Obama administration’s “rebalancing” strategy toward Asia. In early 2013, he traveled to Washington and declared in a seminal speech (at CSIS) that “Japan is back.” He made clear his interest in Japan’s joining the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations then underway. Despite the stiff resistance he expected from Japanese farmers and other vested interests at home, Abe saw TPP membership as a multifaceted strategic ploy to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance, keep the United States embedded in the region, deepen ties with Japan’s Southeast Asian partners, and—not least—send a message to Beijing about Tokyo’s throw weight in regional rulemaking and norm-setting.
continued part 3
The election of Donald Trump halfway into his term forced Abe to sharply shift tactics while attempting to preserve the basic goals of his strategy. He quickly tried to ingratiate himself with Trump (famously flying to New York just weeks after the November 2016 election bearing a gift of a golden golf driver) in an effort to deflect the bilateral trade pressure that Abe knew was coming. While not entirely successful in these efforts, and paying a heavy price for what domestic critics saw as slavish behavior, Abe managed to avoid the worst of Trump’s tariffs on allies—most significant, threatened duties against the crown jewels of Japanese industry, automobiles.
ReplyDeleteTrump’s decision to withdraw from TPP on his third day in office was a major inflection point for Abe. Where other Japanese prime ministers would likely have resigned themselves to collapse of the regional trade initiative without its principal sponsor at the table, Abe made one of his boldest moves: he took up the chairman’s gavel and persuaded the other 10 TPP members to carry on with the negotiations. Historians are likely to point to Abe’s stewardship of those talks to a successful conclusion—salvaging most of TPP in an eventual Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)—as one of the singular achievements of his term.
Again, part of Abe’s strategic calculation about CPTPP was that it would plant a stake in the ground in the intensifying competition between Japan and China for regional leadership. As I have written elsewhere, while geographic proximity and commercial interdependence necessitate that Tokyo engage constructively with its large neighbor to the west, no Japanese leader can accept a Sinocentric order in the Asia-Pacific based on Beijing’s preferred rules and norms. Abe thus focused much of his economic statecraft on trying to offer alternatives to partners in the region.
continued part 4
ReplyDeleteIn addition to CPTPP, other noteworthy efforts in this regard included his campaign to promote “quality infrastructure.” Launched in 2015 as a thinly veiled response to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Abe’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure initially offered regional partners $110 billion (a number suspiciously close to the initial $100 billion capitalization of Beijing’s Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank) of Japanese investment in railways and ports with high standards of transparency and social, environmental, and fiscal sustainability. Abe then used his 2019 chairmanship of the Group of 20 (G20) to get his fellow economic leaders—including President Xi Jinping of China—to endorse a set of six “Principles for Quality Infrastructure Investment.”
Data governance was another area in which Abe tried to make a statement about Japan’s preferred rules and norms. Often described as the “new oil,” data flow throughout the modern economy, yet there are few internationally agreed rules to govern the collection, storage, transfer, or privacy of data. Europe and China are staking out their own preferences in this area, but neither approach rests comfortably with Japan. Again, Abe used his role as host of the G20 in 2019 to win agreement to his concept of “data free flow with trust,” with the aim of starting a global conversation on this topic—along Japan’s preferred lines.
Toward the end of his term, Abe worked more quietly to sharpen Japan’s domestic tools of "economic security." He won passage of legislation to tighten the country’s foreign investment screening mechanism, authorized stronger enforcement of export controls, and set up a new economics office in his National Security Secretariat. Most recently, Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been considering proposals to strengthen intelligence agencies’ tools against commercial espionage.
Balance—between offensive and defensive tools, between soliciting Washington’s favor and protecting Japan’s commercial interests, between engaging with and hedging against China—has been the hallmark of Shinzo Abe’s economic statecraft. His successor would do well to carry on this important dimension of the outgoing prime minister’s legacy.
Matthew P. Goodman is senior vice president for economics and holds the Simon Chair in Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.